Um excelente artigo de Bill Emmott, antigo director da revista The Economist, que pode ser consultado aqui no Washington Post.
Meanwhile, we may feel that politically the world is a mess, but our feelings don't entirely fit the facts -- at least the immediate facts. There are fewer inter-state wars now than there were five, ten or fifteen years ago. The conflicts we are most disturbed about -- Iraq, Israel, Sri Lanka -- are civil wars. The country whose prestige has been damaged most by the debacle in Iraq is of course the United States, so we tend to think of this as politically highly significant. And it may prove to be, but it isn't right now.
The big reason why the world economy is unaffected by turmoil in the Middle East, or even by the nuclear weapons programs of Iran and North Korea, is that the world's great powers -- America, China, Russia, the EU countries, India and Japan -- are more or less friendly with one another and more or less co-operative with one another. None is seeking to stoke up conflict with any of the others.